🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Profited $436K from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the time leading up to former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been seized. One account, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of a political change at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by the end of the day and surged in the early hours of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment right before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other platform users also made significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A bill put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to predict everything from elections to political events. The industry were examined under the last presidential term. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting space. An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."